NFP update, the trade of the month awaits you if you dare

2:30pm GMT NFP

November is a month to remember in markets – stocks tend to fall before autumn leaves do, and this year will likely be similar. Pressure on equities is only one reason to expect the Nonfarm Payrolls report to send the dollar up. Lets hope for a traditional "Santa rally" next month.

Non-Farm Employment Change Expected jobs created 197K Previous month 263K

The NFP Trade.

Jerome Powell wants signs of a jobs slow down and wages inflation to drop in order to stem his Hawkish stance on future interest rate hikes.

We all saw the market reaction on Wednesday. The Dollar Index (USD/DXY), a popular measure of the Greenback’s value against a basket of 6 major currencies, soared to 112.90 from 111.60, up 1.39%.


Depending on the results , the trends may continue, even after a short reprieve for the major currencies yesterday.

You may want to consider sell opportunities on EUR/USD on a strong NFP reading.

Anything between 100K-300K jobs created is still a strong labour market.

The world’s most-widely traded currency pair has turned last week and broken a near-term bullish trend line, opening the door for more downside toward the October lows in the mid-0.9600s or even the two-decade lows in the mid-0.9500s if the US labour market surprises to the upside.

Gold as always will move in the opposite direction as the USD, in the aftermath of the results.

USD/JPY will also move.


On the other hand, a soft jobs report could present a short-term sell opportunity in USD/CAD. While the broader trend favors the greenback, USD/CAD is currently holding below the September and October highs and could form a potential head-and-shoulders top pattern if it rolls over on the back of a slowing jobs report in the US.

Good luck.