Technical Analysis and Review for 04 November 2022

Here are our signal directions and price ranges for your consideration. These are your guides for your own research to help you identify opportunities. We recommend including fundamentals into your research and to keep up to date with breaking news that may impact the direction of your trades. Good luck and have a great day.

Fundamentals

  • Oil prices turn higher as the dollar eases, but gains are capped by recession fears and fresh concerns that COVID outbreaks will dent fuel demand in China

  • The Bank of England states the UK is going to fall into the longest recession in history causing the pound to drop below 1.12

  • US Non-Farm employment change data to be released today. A stronger than expected Non-Farm data could see the DXY break above 113 resistance level and create sell opportunities for the EUR/USD. On a softer than expected Non-Farm data could create a sell opportunity on the USD/CAD and USD/JPY

  • Gold price is likely to continue trading between a wide price range of 1616.78 and 1667.06

  • Look out for sideways movement until the NFP and then expect volatility across the board.


USD/JPY: INTRADAY BEARISH

  • Overnight the USD/JPY saw some bullish momentum before closing at 148.28. The price is at 147.81 at time of writing.

  • We expect price to move sideways until the NFP at 12:30pm GMT. If NFP releases strong data, we expect some bullish momentum and price to head up to the second resistance at 149.26.

  • Alternatively, if softer data is released, we expect bearish momentum to kick in and the price to head back towards the third support at 146.13

Pivot 147.94

Our Preference:

Short positions below 147.94 with targets 147.45, 146.62, 146.13


Alternative Scenario:

Above 147.94 long positions with targets 148.77, 149.26, 150.09

EUR/USD: INTRADAY BEARISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is below the Ichimoku cloud and is currently at 0.9788 at time of writing. We expect the price to drop to the first support at 0.9707 and range between the pivot and first support. Alternatively, the price may retest the 0.9817 resistance level, if it breaks through this it will head towards the 0.9883 level.

Pivot 0.9773

Our Preference:

Short positions below 0.9773 with targets 0.9707, 0.9663, 0.9597


Alternative Scenario:

Above 0.9773 long positions with targets 0.9817, 0.9883, 0.9927

GBP/USD: INTRADAY BEARISH
  • On the 4-hour chart, price is showing a recovery and has broken through the 1.1200 resistance, price is currently at 1.1228 at time of writing. If the recovery continues, price may head towards the first resistance at 1.1358. Alternatively, price may fall back to the first support at 1.1055

Pivot 1.1255

Our Preference:

Below 1.1255 short positions with targets 1.1055, 1.0952, 1.0752


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 1.1255 with targets 1.1358, 1.1558, 1.1661

USD/CHF CAUTION
  • On the 4-hour chart, price is showing overall bullish direction and is also above the Ichimoku cloud. The price is currently at 1.0097 at time of writing. If bullish momentum continues, we expect price to hit the first resistance at 1.0186.

Pivot 1.0095


Our Preference:

Long positions above 1.0095 with targets 1.0186, 1.0239, 1.0330


Alternative Scenario:

Short positions below 1.0095 with targets 1.0042, 0.9951, 0.9898

XAU/USD: INTRADAY BULLISH
  • Overnight gold has recovered back up to 147.12 at time of writing. We are bullish that the price may rise to the second resistance at 1654.19, if it breaks this it may hit the third resistance at 1667.06 before dropping back towards the first support at 1616.78

Pivot 1629.05

Our Preference:

Short positions below 1629.05 with targets 1616.78, 1603.91, 1591.64


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 1629.05, with targets 1641.92, 1654.19, 1667.06

AUD/USD: INTRADAY BEARISH
  • Overnight the price has recovered and is currently testing the first resistance at 0.6354 at time of writing. If it breaks this, it may head towards the second resistance at 0.6419. Alternatively, if it does not break through the first resistance, we expect the price to drop back to the first support at 0.6248.

  • Look out for a reversal if stronger than expected Non-Farm Payroll data.

Pivot 0.6313


Our Preference:

Below 0.6313 short positions with targets 0.6248, 0.6207, 0.6142


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 0.6313 with targets 0.6354, 0.6419, 0.6460

NZD/USD: BEARISH
  • The price is currently just below the first resistance at 0.5814 and is below the Ichimoku cloud. We have a slightly bearish bias that the price may drop back to the first support at 0.5723.

  • If the Non-Farm Payroll data is weaker than expected, watch out for a reversal to the upside to test the third resistance at 0.5961.

Pivot 0.5791

Our Preference:

Below 0.5791 short positions with targets 0.5723, 0.5672, 0.5604


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 0.5791 with targets 0.5842, 0.5910, 0.5961

USD/CAD: BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour chart, we are seeing a short-term bearish momentum. However, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, and we expect it to head up to the first resistance at 1.3810. The price is currently at 136.67 at time of writing. We expect sideways movement until the NFP.

  • On a softer than expected Non-Farm data watch out for a reversal to the downside towards 1.3558

Pivot 1.3746

Our Preference:

Long positions above 1.3746 with targets 1.3810, 1.3872, 1.3936


Alternative Scenario:

Below 1.3746 short positions with targets 1.3684, 1.3620, 1.3558

Crude Oil WTI Futures: INTRADAY BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour, the overall bias is bullish, plus it is above the Ichimoku cloud. Price at time of writing is at an intra-day high of 89.50. If bullish momentum continues, we are expecting oil to retest the second resistance at 90.55

Pivot 88.48

Our Preference:

Long positions above 88.48 with targets 89.36, 90.55, 91.43


Alternative Scenario

Below 88.48 short positions with targets 87.29, 86.41, 85.22

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