Technical Analysis and Review for 14 November 2022

Here are our signal directions and price ranges for your consideration. These are your guides for your own research to help you identify opportunities. We recommend including fundamentals into your research and to keep up to date with breaking news that may impact the direction of your trades. Good luck and have a great day.

Fundamentals

  • Investors keep an eye on the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia, where US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi are expected to meet

  • During Asian trading positive sentiment from China impacted on West Texas Intermediate crude oil, which rose to $89.43 a barrel, whilst spot gold fell to $1763.73 an ounce

  • Bank of Japan's Kuroda reiterated his view in a speech to businesses today that Japan's economy is still recovering from the pandemic and warrants support from monetary easing now, signalling there'll be no immediate policy shift

  • The dollar index has been sliding because of signs of the US inflation cooling off and a potential dovish stance to be taken by the FED in December

  • Fed's John Williams moderates panel and FOMC member Brainard speaks at 16:30pm GMT today

  • DXY consolidates after Friday's CPI data, its currently at 106.78 up 0.5%, however we expect it to drop to 106.00. Look for the price to drop below this level for further continuation of downside to the 105.00 key support - (as of 11am GMT, price has rebounded off 106.00 support)

  • Major currencies are consolidating at their near time highs, look for direction from the DXY for stronger signals that signify long term technical indicators are back in play

  • Expect choppy price action across all major currencies and commodities as investors weigh up the Fed's stance on inflation

USD/JPY: INTRADAY BEARISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is continuing its bearish long-term trend and is below the Ichimoku cloud. Overnight there has been a corrective bounce off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, the price is currently at 139.55 at time of writing. There is also oversold signals with the RSI below 30 at 28.

  • Look for the price to drop below 138.65 for a stronger sell signal with a target support level of 135.92. Alternatively, look for the price to be above 140.80 for a stronger buy signal with resistance target up to 143.92

  • We expect choppy trading with further weakness likely.

Pivot 139.92

Our Preference:

Short positions below 139.92 with targets 137.36, 135.92, 133.36


Alternative Scenario:

Above 139.92 long positions with targets 141.36, 143.92, 145.36

EUR/USD: INTRADAY CONSOLIDATION
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. The price is currently testing the 1.0300 resistance level but is struggling to break through this and as a result there has been a pullback overnight. RSI is currently showing overbought signals, at just below 70.

  • Look for the price to break 1.0370 for a stronger buy signal, alternatively, look for the 1.0280 support to be broken for further downside.

Pivot 1.0295

Our Preference:

Above 1.0295 long positions with targets 1.0424, 1.0496, 1.0626


Alternative Scenario:

Short positions below 1.0295 with targets 1.0223, 1.0094, 1.0022


GBP/USD: BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. The price is currently testing the 1.1800 level but has retraced slightly during the morning session, its currently at 1.1750 at time of writing. If bullish momentum continues, we expect the price to head back up towards the first resistance at 1.1931. Alternatively, the price may drop back to the first support at 1.1705.

Pivot 1.1780

Our Preference:

Long positions above 1.1780 with targets, 1.1913, 1.1988, 1.2121


Alternative Scenario:

Below 1.1780 short positions with targets 1.1705, 1.1572, 1.1497


USD/CHF INTRADAY BEARISH
  • On the 4-hour chart, price is showing overall bearish direction and is also below the Ichimoku cloud. However, in Asia trading there has been a bounce off the 0.9498 support level and the RSI is showing signs of oversold below 30 at 27. There could be a short-term recovery. If so, expect the price to head up towards the first resistance at 0.9599, if it breaks through this it may test the second resistance at 0.9785. Alternatively, if bearish momentum continues, we expect the price to hit the first support at 0.9312.


Pivot 0.9498


Our Preference:

Short positions below 0.9498 with targets 0.9312, 0.9211, 0.9025


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 0.9498 with targets 0.9599, 0.9785, 0.9886

XAU/USD: BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour chart price is bullish and above the Ichimoku cloud. However, overnight the price has failed to break 1770.00 and has retraced to 1758.50 at time of writing. Look for the price to break through 1765.00 for further upside with a target of 1780.37.

  • Alternatively, look for the price to drop below 1760.00 for a stronger downside signal.

Pivot 1763.84

Our Preference:

Long positions above 1763.84, with targets 1780.37, 1789.33, 1805.86


Alternative Scenario:

Short positions below 1763.84 with targets 1754.88, 1738.35, 1729.39

AUD/USD: INTRADAY BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour chart, the price is moving in an ascending direction, and is above the Ichimoku cloud. However, there has been a retracement during Asian trading. We expect the price to hit the first resistance at 0.6758 and then may retrace back to the first support at 0.6619.

Pivot 0.6669


Our Preference:

Long positions above 0.6669 with targets 0.6758, 0.6808, 0.6897


Alternative Scenario:

Below 0.6669 short positions with targets 0.6619, 0.6530, 0.6480


NZD/USD: BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. There has been some consolidation overnight, with the price currently at 0.6080 at time of writing and trading sideways. If bullish momentum continues, the price may test the first resistance at 0.6164. Alternatively, the price may retrace to the second support at 0.5925.

Pivot 0.6073

Our Preference:

Long positions above 0.6073 with targets 0.6164, 0.6221, 0.6312


Alternative Scenario:

Below 0.6073 short positions with targets 0.6016, 0.5925, 0.5868

USD/CAD: BEARISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bearish. Overnight, the bearish momentum has continued. Price is currently at 1.3278 at time of writing. We expect the price to head towards the first support at 1.3209. Alternatively, the price may head back up to the first resistance at 1.3334.

Pivot 1.3285

Our Preference:

Below 1.3285 short positions with targets 1.3209, 1.3160, 1.3084


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 1.3285 with targets 1.3334, 1.3410, 1.3459


Crude Oil WTI Futures: INTRADAY BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour, the overall bias is bearish and is below the Ichimoku cloud. Overnight oil has traded sideways. Wait for a breakout above 88.50 for a stronger bullish sentiment and then we expect the price to hit the first resistance at 90.64. Alternatively, if the price fails to break to the upside, look for a retracement to the first support at 86.72.

Pivot 88.41

Our Preference:

Long positions above 88.41, with targets 90.64, 92.33, 94.56


Alternative Scenario

Below 88.41 short positions with targets 86.72, 84.49, 82.80


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