Technical Analysis and Review for 15 November 2022

Here are our signal directions and price ranges for your consideration. These are your guides for your own research to help you identify opportunities. We recommend including fundamentals into your research and to keep up to date with breaking news that may impact the direction of your trades. Good luck and have a great day.

Fundamentals

  • China retail sales shrink as Covid outbreaks strain the economy. Industrial output slowed, retail sales contracted and a slump in the property market shows no sign of recovery -Yuan weakens on the weaker than expected data

  • WTI crude oil trades near $86.00 a barrel after losing 3.5% Monday over concerns on near-term demand after OPEC cut its forecasts for global demand in the fourth quarter again and US companies fracked fewer wells than drilled, indicating a possible slowdown in production

  • UK claimant count change employment data release today at 07:00GMT

  • Former US President Donald Trump plans to make an announcement today

  • Key Data from the USA released today - Empire Manufacturing and PPI at 13:30pm GMT.

  • Look for a potential upside from the DXY, if it breaks 107, look for further upside to 108.

  • Most major currencies trade in consolidation awaiting key data releases.

USD/JPY: INTRADAY BEARISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is continuing its bearish long-term trend and is below the Ichimoku cloud. However, a rebound off the 138.00 '2-month' low is currently testing the upside momentum. Price is currently at 140.20 at time of writing. Wait for a clear downside break of the 140.000 support level for a stronger sell signal

  • Alternatively, if the rebound continues the price may break to the upside and the price may head up to resistance level 143.15

  • We expect choppy trading with limited upside. Further weakness likely.

Pivot 139.74

Our Preference:

Short positions below 139.74 with targets 138.69, 137.51, 136.46


Alternative Scenario:

Above 139.74 long positions with targets 140.92, 141.97, 143.15

EUR/USD: INTRADAY CONSOLIDATION
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. However, the price has been trading sideways.

  • The price is currently testing the 1.0300 resistance level but is struggling to break through this. RSI is currently showing overbought signals, at just below 70.

  • Wait for the price to form a topping formation below the trendline and the price to break 1.0325 for clearer direction.

  • If price breaks out to the upside, it may head to just below the 105.00 resistance before retracing. Alternatively, if it breaks to the downside, look for new support at 1.0276.

  • Warning: A possible downside correction can't be ruled out.

Pivot 1.0325

Our Preference:

Above 1.0325 long positions with targets 1.0377, 1.0426, 1.0478


Alternative Scenario:

Short positions below 1.0325 with targets 1.0276, 1.0224, 1.0175

GBP/USD: UNDER PRESSURE
  • On the 4-hour the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. However, there has been a slight pullback and price is currently moving sideways. Price is currently at 1.1770 at time of writing as investors wait for the UK employment data release.

  • Look for the price to break 1.1790 for bullish direction and then the price may rise to the third resistance level at 1.1940. Alternatively, look for a downside break below 1.1760 and then the price may drop back to the first support at 1.1704.

  • Limited downside expected.

Pivot 1.1767

Our Preference:

Long positions above 1.1767 with targets, 1.1822, 1.1885, 1.1940


Alternative Scenario:

Below 1.1767 short positions with targets 1.1704, 1.1649, 1.1586

USD/CHF INTRADAY RANGING
  • On the 4-hour chart, price is showing overall bearish direction and is also below the Ichimoku cloud. However, the RSI is showing signs of oversold below 30 and a Harami cross formation signals a possible price reversal. Overnight the pair has traded sideways and is currently at 0.9439 at time of writing. If bearish momentum continues, the price may head towards the first support level at 0.9384, Alternatively, if the price reverses we expect the price to move up to the third resistance at 0.9588.


Pivot 0.9438


Our Preference:

Short positions below 0.9438 with targets 0.9384, 0.9336, 0.9282


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 0.9438 with targets 0.9486, 0.9540, 0.9588

XAU/USD: BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour chart price is bullish and above the Ichimoku cloud. However, overnight the price has failed to break 1770.00. Wait for the price to break this key support for further upside momentum. We expect the price to rise to the third resistance at 1778.63 and beyond.

  • Alternatively, if the price does not break to the upside look for the price to drop below 1768.11 for a stronger downside signal.

Pivot 1770.25

Our Preference:

Long positions above 1770.25, with targets 1773.37, 1775.51, 1778.63


Alternative Scenario:

Short positions below 1770.25 with targets 1768.11, 1764.99, 1762.85

AUD/USD: INTRADAY CONSOLIDATION
  • On the 4-hour chart, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. However, there has been a consolidation during Asian trading. Wait for the price to breakout for clearer direction. We are slightly bullish that the price will break to the upside and will rise to the first resistance at 0.6730. Price is currently at 0.6712 at time of writing. Alternatively, the price may break to the downside and retrace to the first support at 0.6669.

  • Weak bearish momentum. Possible price reversal.

Pivot 0.6697


Our Preference:

Long positions above 0.6697 with targets 0.6730, 0.6758, 0.6791


Alternative Scenario:

Below 0.6697 short positions with targets 0.6669, 0.6636, 0.6608

NZD/USD: BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. There has been some consolidation overnight, with the price currently at 0.6120 at time of writing. If bullish momentum continues, the price may test the first resistance at 0.6125. Alternatively, the price may retrace to the second support at 0.6065.

  • Be prudent of the DXY, if it strengthens, expect a price reversal.

Pivot 0.6074

Our Preference:

Long positions above 0.6074 with targets 0.6125, 0.6154, 0.6185


Alternative Scenario:

Below 0.6074 short positions with targets 0.6065, 0.6034, 0.6005

USD/CAD: BEARISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bearish. Overnight, the bearish momentum has continued. Price is currently at 1.3290 at time of writing. If bearish momentum continues, we expect the price to head towards the first support at 1.3266. Alternatively, the price may head back up to the first resistance at 1.3342

Pivot 1.3292

Our Preference:

Below 1.3292 short positions with targets 1.3266, 1.3216, 1.3190


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 1.3292 with targets 1.3342, 1.3368, 1.3418

Crude Oil WTI Futures: INTRADAY UNDER PRESSURE
  • On the 4-hour, the overall bias is bearish and is below the Ichimoku cloud. Price is currently at 84.58 If bearish momentum continues, we expect the price to hit the first support at 84.07. Alternatively, if price rebounds, it may head back up to the first support at 88.74.

Pivot 86.95

Our Preference:

Below 86.95 short positions with targets 84.07, 82.28, 79.40


Alternative Scenario

Long positions above 86.95, with targets 88.74, 91.62, 93.41


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