Technical Analysis and Review for 16 November 2022

Here are our signal directions and price ranges for your consideration. These are your guides for your own research to help you identify opportunities. We recommend including fundamentals into your research and to keep up to date with breaking news that may impact the direction of your trades. Good luck and have a great day.

Fundamentals

  • Expect significant volatility today ahead of key data releases that may impact the direction of all major currencies.

  • UK inflation data, CPI and PPI at 07:00am GMT

  • UK Monetary policy hearings at 14:15pm GMT

  • Canada inflation data, CPI at 13.30pm GMT

  • US business inventories, cross-border investment, retail sales and industrial production data releases from 13:30pm GMT

  • Fed's John Williams, Lael Brainard and SEC Chair Gensler speak at 14:50pm GMT

  • ECB's Christine Lagarde speaks at 15:00pm GMT

  • Crude oil inventories at 15:30pm GMT

  • As news of stray Russian missiles hitting NATO Poland is released, markets trade sideways and the Dollar gains. Expect strengthening of DXY today

  • Await NATO Ambassadors meeting outcome for further direction.

USD/JPY: INTRADAY BEARISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is continuing its bearish long-term trend and is below the Ichimoku cloud. However, a double bottom formation at 138.00 has led to a rebound with price at 140.00 at time of writing. The RSI is also trying to move into a bullish range. If bullish momentum kicks in, we could see a short-term price reversal. Look for a clear break above the first resistance of 140.67 and then we expect price to hit the second resistance at 142.05.

  • Alternatively, if bearish momentum continues, look for the price to break the first support at 137.86, if it breaks this, we expect the price to hit the third support at 135.05

  • We expect choppy trading with limited upside. Further weakness likely. Be cautious of US data releases.

Pivot 139.23

Our Preference:

Short positions below 139.23 with targets 137.86, 136.42, 135.05


Alternative Scenario:

Above 139.23 long positions with targets 140.67, 142.04, 143.48


EUR/USD: INTRADAY BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud.

  • The price is currently hovering around 1.0355. We expect price to head to the first resistance at 1.0460, if it breaks this it may break the second resistance at 1.0569 and then hit the third resistance at 1.0659

  • Alternatively, if it breaks to the downside, look for new support at 1.0261

  • Warning: ECB Christine Lagarde speaks at 15:00pm GMT

Pivot 1.0370

Our Preference:

Above 1.0370 long positions with targets 1.0460, 1.0569, 1.0659


Alternative Scenario:

Short positions below 1.0370 with targets 1.0261, 1.0171, 1.0062



GBP/USD: BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. However, the price is currently moving sideways as investors wait for the UK inflation data release at 07:00am GMT.

  • Price is currently at 1.1850 at time of writing and the MACD conditions are still bullish.

  • Look for the price to break 1.1878 for bullish direction and then the price may rise to the first resistance level at 1.2015.

  • Alternatively, look for a downside break below 1.1878 and then the price may drop back to the first support at 1.1729

  • Wait for the UK data release for today's direction.

Pivot 1.1878

Our Preference:

Long positions above 1.1878 with targets, 1.2015, 1.2164, 1.2301


Alternative Scenario:

Below 1.1878 short positions with targets 1.1729, 1.1592, 1.1443



USD/CHF INTRADAY CONSOLIDATION
  • On the 4-hour chart, price is showing overall bearish direction and is also below the Ichimoku cloud. However, the RSI is showing signs of oversold below 30 and a Harami cross formation signals a possible price reversal. Overnight the pair continues to trade sideways and is currently at 0.9400 at time of writing. If bearish momentum continues, the price may head towards the first support level at 0.9376, Alternatively, if the price reverses we expect the price to move up to the first resistance at 0.9496.

Pivot 0.9427


Our Preference:

Short positions below 0.9427 with targets 0.9376, 0.9307, 0.9256


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 0.9427 with targets 0.9496, 0.9547, 0.9616


XAU/USD: Weak Bullish
  • On the 4-hour chart price is bullish and above the Ichimoku cloud. However, overnight, there has been a slight correction and gold has traded sideways. We expect the price to be topsy turvy today with a possible rise to the first resistance at 1782.29. It's worth noting that the bullish momentum is weak.

  • Alternatively, the price may drop back to the first support at 1774.52

  • Await NATO Ambassadors meeting outcome for further direction.

Pivot 1778.01

Our Preference:

Long positions above 1778.01, with targets 1782.29, 1785.78, 1790.06


Alternative Scenario:

Short positions below 1778.01 with targets 1774.52, 1770.24, 1766.75



AUD/USD: INTRADAY CONSOLIDATION
  • On the 4-hour chart, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. However, there has been a consolidation during Asian trading. Wait for the price to breakout for clearer direction. We are slightly bullish that the price will break to the upside and will rise to the first resistance at 0.6808. Price is currently at 0.6759 at time of writing. Alternatively, the price may break to the downside and retrace to the first support at 0.6695.

  • Weak bearish momentum. Possible price reversal. RSI showing signs of overbought.

  • The trajectory will depend on the USD. Look for the DXY to break to the upside for a price reversal.

Pivot 0.6746


Our Preference:

Long positions above 0.6746 with targets 0.6808, 0.6859, 0.6921


Alternative Scenario:

Below 0.6746 short positions with targets 0.6695, 0.6633, 0.6582



NZD/USD: BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. The price is currently at 0.6161 at time of writing. If bullish momentum continues, the price may head towards the first resistance at 0.6214. Alternatively, the price may retrace to the first support at 0.6095.

  • Be prudent of the DXY, if it strengthens, expect a price reversal.

Pivot 0.6149

Our Preference:

Long positions above 0.6149 with targets 0.6214, 0.6268, 0.6333


Alternative Scenario:

Below 0.6149 short positions with targets 0.6095, 0.6030, 0.5976


USD/CAD: BEARISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bearish. Overnight, the bearish momentum has continued. Price is currently at 1.3275 at time of writing. If bearish momentum continues, we expect the price to head towards the first support at 1.3228. Alternatively, the price may head back up to the first resistance at 1.3335.

Pivot 1.3282

Our Preference:

Below 1.3282 short positions with targets 1.3228, 1.3175, 1.3121

Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 1.3282 with targets 1.3335, 1.3389, 1.3442