Technical Analysis and Review for 17 November 2022

Here are our signal directions and price ranges for your consideration. These are your guides for your own research to help you identify opportunities. We recommend including fundamentals into your research and to keep up to date with breaking news that may impact the direction of your trades. Good luck and have a great day.

Fundamentals

  • AUD/USD showed little reaction to October's Australian jobs report, despite overall positive data. The country added around 32.2k jobs against analysts' expectations of 15.0k.

  • Oil extends losses as investors shift their focus back to concerns over the demand outlook after geopolitical tensions ease.

  • West Texas Intermediate dropped toward $84.00 a barrel after closing 1.5% lower on Wednesday.

  • All eyes are on the UK Autumn forecast

  • Look for increased volatility today, especially if the DXY continues to strengthen

Key Events
  • Key Eurozone CPI data at 10.00am GMT

  • UK Autumn forecast

  • US housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philly FED manufacturing index data at 13:30pm GMT

  • Fed's Neel Kashkari, Loretta Mester speaks from 14:15pm GMT

  • CHF, Governor board member Maechler speaks at 17:00pm GMT

  • Japan CPI data release at 23:30pm GMT

USD/JPY: INTRADAY BEARISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is continuing its bearish long-term trend and is below the Ichimoku cloud. The asset has been trading sideways over the last 24 hours ranging between a high of 140.29 and a low of 138.75. If bearish momentum continues expect a breakout to the downside below 138.76 support level with a further price drop to 137.98 and 137.22.

  • Alternatively, if consolidation continues, expect the price to head towards the first resistance at 140.30.

  • Price is currently at 139.50 at time of writing.

Pivot 139.52

Our Preference:

Short positions below 139.52 with targets 138.76, 137.98, 137.22


Alternative Scenario:

Above 139.52 long positions with targets 140.30, 141.06, 141.84


EUR/USD: INTRADAY UNDER PRESSURE
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud and has been in a bullish triangle formation since Monday. However, the price has dropped slightly during early trading.

  • The price is struggling to break through the 1.0389 pivot.

  • There may be a slight pullback to the second support at 1.0282.

  • Alternatively, if it breaks to the upside, look for a new price target at 1.0445.

  • The price is at 1.0383 at time of writing.

Pivot 1.0389

Our Preference:

Short positions below 1.0389 with targets 1.0338, 1.0282, 1.0231


Alternative Scenario:

Above 1.0389 long positions with targets 1.0445, 1.0496, 1.0552



GBP/USD: WEAK BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. However, the price is currently moving sideways as investors wait for the UK Autumn forecast.

  • There could be a pullback to the first support at 1.1851. Alternatively, a break of further upside could take the price to the second resistance at 1.2006

  • Wait for the UK Autumn Forecast statement for further direction.

  • The price is currently at 1.1887 at time of writing.

Pivot 1.1896

Our Preference:

Long positions above 1.1896 with targets, 1.1961, 1.2006, 1.2071


Alternative Scenario:

Below 1.1896 short positions with targets 1.1851, 1.1786, 1.1741


USD/CHF INTRADAY WEAK BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is still bearish and below the Ichimoku cloud. However, price is showing a short-term recovery during the Asian trading session. There could be a continuation of upside bullish momentum, which could see the price retest the first resistance at 0.9484. Alternatively, if the long-term bearish trend continues, the price could retest the first support at 0.9400.

  • The price is currently at 0.9448 at time of writing.

  • NB: Governor board member Maechler speaks at 17:00pm GMT

Pivot 0.9435


Our Preference:

Long positions above 0.9435 with targets 0.9484, 0.9519, 0.9568

Alternative Scenario:

Short positions below 0.9435 with targets 0.9400, 0.9351, 0.9316



XAU/USD: SHORT TERM BEARISH
  • On the 4-hour chart price is bullish and above the Ichimoku cloud. However, overnight, there has been a continuation of a price drop. Its currently at 1762.98 at time of writing. If the price continues to drop, we expect it to retest the 1758.90 support. Alternatively, if the long-term bullish trend continues, the price will retest the 1778.09 resistance.

Pivot 1770.60

Our Preference:

Short positions below 1770.60 with targets 1766.39, 1758.90, 1754.69


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 1770.60, with targets 1778.09, 1782.30, 1789.79



AUD/USD: INTRADAY SHORT TERM BEARISH
  • On the 4-hour chart, the price is bullish and above the Ichimoku cloud. However, there has been a downside break off the consolidation during Asian trading.

  • We are slightly bearish that the price will continue to drop and test the second support at 0.6678 and possibly continue to the third support at 0.6637.

  • Alternatively, if the long-term trend continues, price could head back up to the first resistance at 0.6785.

  • Price is currently at 0.6715 at time of writing.

Pivot 0.6752


Our Preference:

Below 0.6752 short positions with targets 0.6711, 0.6678, 0.6637


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 0.6752 with targets 0.6785, 0.6826, 0.6859



NZD/USD: SHORT TERM BEARISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. However, the price has been dropping during the Asian session. The price is currently at 0.6132 at time of writing. It may continue downwards and retest the first support at 0.6122. It will need to break this support level for further downside momentum.

  • Alternatively, if the long-term trend continues, the price may head back to retest the first resistance at 0.6187.

Pivot 0.6158


Our Preference:

Below 0.6158 short positions with targets 0.6122, 0.6093, 0.6057


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 0.6158 with targets 0.6187, 0.6223, 0.6252


USD/CAD: SHORT-TERM BULLISH
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bearish and below the Ichimoku cloud, however, overnight the asset has been moving to the upside in a correction of the recent bearish trend. If bullish momentum continues, we expect the price to test the first resistance at 1.3375, if it breaks through this, it may retest the second resistance at 1.3422.

  • Alternatively, if the long-term bearish trend continues, the price may drop back to the first support at 1.3255

  • Price is currently at 1.3354 at time of writing

Pivot 1.3302