Technical Analysis and Review for 18 November 2022

Here are our signal directions and price ranges for your consideration. These are your guides for your own research to help you identify opportunities. We recommend including fundamentals into your research and to keep up to date with breaking news that may impact the direction of your trades. Good luck and have a great day.

Fundamentals

  • Oil poised for second weekly decline as concerns over China's Covid cases and aggressive monetary tightening from major banks weigh on the demand outlook.

  • UK faces weak growth and rising taxes, yet consumer confidence ticks up

  • Japan inflation hits four-decade high, weighing on bank of Japan for position on interest rates as still no change to monetary policy

  • The DXY is fluctuating between the 106 and 107 price level after comments from the Fed Reserve indicate interest rates could be higher for longer beyond 5% level

  • Major currencies could gain some ground against the dollar if the DXY continues to weaken. Its looking mixed and choppy out there today as we come to the close of the week.

Key Events
  • UK retail sales month on month at 07:00am GMT

  • ECB President Lagarde speaks at 08:30am GMT

  • US existing home sales at 15:00pm GMT

USD/JPY: Intraday Bearish
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is continuing its bearish long-term trend and is below the Ichimoku cloud.

  • The asset has been ranging for most of the week between a high of 142.48 and a low of 137.79.

  • In Asian trading the price has dropped from 140.63 to 139.94.

  • The price is boxed in; however, a breakout could be on the cards in either direction.

  • If bearish momentum continues wait for a breakout to the downside below 138.13 support level with a price target to 138.07 and 137.26

  • Alternatively, look for a breakout above 139.94 with price targets 141.00 and 141.81.

  • Price is currently at 139.90 at time of writing.

Pivot 139.94

Our Preference:

Short positions below 139.94 with targets 139.13, 138.07, 137.26


Alternative Scenario:

Above 139.94 long positions with targets 141.00, 141.81, 142.87

EUR/USD: Intraday Under Pressure
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud however, the price is seesawing around the 1.0360 ascending support line and is failing to head higher even after multiple attempts this week.

  • There may be a slight pullback to the second support at 1.0259. Look for the price to drop below the 103.00 support for clearer signs of a pullback.

  • Alternatively, if it continues its bullish long-term trend, look for the price to break the 1.0390 for clearer upward direction and a new price target at 1.0413

  • The price is at 1.0382 at time of writing.

Pivot 1.0360

Our Preference:

Short positions below 1.0360 with targets 1.0312, 1.0259, 1.0211


Alternative Scenario:

Above 1.0360 long positions with targets 1.0413, 1.0461, 1.0514

GBP/USD: Intraday Bullish
  • On the 4-hour the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. If bullish momentum continues, the price may break the first resistance at 1.1961 and retest the second resistance at 1.2057 before a possible retracement back to the first support level at 1.1767

  • The price is currently at 1.1908 at time of writing

  • Be prudent of the UK retail sales data release at 07:00am GMT.

Pivot 1.1863

Our Preference:

Long positions above 1.1863 with targets, 1.1961, 1.2057, 1.2155


Alternative Scenario:

Below 1.1863 short positions with targets 1.1767, 1.1669, 1.1573

USD/CHF Intraday Consolidation
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is still bearish and below the Ichimoku cloud. However, price is consolidating during the Asian trading session. There could be a breakout in either direction

  • A breakout to the upside could see the price retest the first resistance at 0.9571 Alternatively, a breakout to the downside could see the price retest the first support at 0.9456

  • The price is currently at 0.9516 at time of writing.

Pivot 0.9507


Our Preference:

Long positions above 0.9507 with targets 0.9571, 0.9622, 0.9686

Alternative Scenario:

Short positions below 0.9507 with targets 0.9456, 0.9392, 0.9341

XAU/USD: Intraday Consolidation
  • On the 4-hour chart price is bullish and above the Ichimoku cloud. However, over the last 48 hours, there has been a continuation of a price drop. During the Asian session the price has bounced off a 1756.50 support

  • If the price continues to drop, we expect it to retest the second support at 1747.54

  • Alternatively, if the long-term bullish trend continues, the price may retest the 1780.93 resistance

  • Look for the DXY to weaken to give a stronger bullish signal

  • Price is currently at 1762.50 at time of writing.

Pivot 1767.76

Our Preference:

Short positions below 1767.76 with targets 1760.71, 1747.54, 1740.49


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 1767.76, with targets 1780.93, 1787.98, 1801.15

AUD/USD: Intraday Bullish
  • On the 4-hour chart, the price is bullish and above the Ichimoku cloud. there has been some bullish momentum during Asian trading.

  • We are slightly bullish that the price will continue to rise and test the first resistance at 0.6749, however we expect choppy price action. Look for the price to reject the 0.6700 level, which could lead to a reversal and the price retracing to the first support at 0.6631

  • Price is currently at 0.6705 at time of writing.

Pivot 0.6691


Our Preference:

Long positions above 0.6691 with targets 0.6749, 0.6809, 0.6867


Alternative Scenario:

Below 0.6691 short positions with targets 0.6631, 0.6573, 0.6513

NZD/USD: Intraday Bullish
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. It has rebounded during the Asian session.

  • If bullish momentum continues it may retest the first resistance at 0.6177, if it fails to break the price may fall back to the first support at 0.6072

  • The price is at 0.6153 at time of writing.

Pivot 0.6120


Our Preference:

Long positions above 0.6120 with targets 0.6177, 0.6225, 0.6282


Alternative Scenario:

Below 0.6120 short positions with targets 0.6072, 0.6015, 0.5967

USD/CAD: Intraday Bearish
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bearish and below the Ichimoku cloud, if the bearish trend continues, the price may drop back to the first support at 1.3287

  • Price is currently at 1.3324 at time of writing

Pivot 1.3344

Our Preference:

Below 1.3344 short positions with targets 1.3287, 1.3247, 1.3190