Technical Analysis and Review for 23 November 2022

Here are our signal directions and price ranges for your consideration. These are your guides for your own research to help you identify opportunities. We recommend including fundamentals into your research and to keep up to date with breaking news that may impact the direction of your trades. Good luck and have a great day.

Fundamentals

  • New Zealand's Central Bank raised interest rates by a record 0.75% points and signalled further tightening ahead

  • The USD index (DXY) keeps trading on the defensive near 107.50 ahead of flash PMI release and FOMC speak. It's under intense selling pressure amid a decline in safe havens. It may test the 106.88 low from Monday.

  • The returns on US government bonds have dropped below 3.76% amid escalating signs of a slowdown in the interest rate hike pace by the Fed Reserve

  • All eyes turn to Durable Goods orders data release today. The consumer demand indicator is expected to display a consistent improvement of 0.4%. This could impact the Fed's plans of cutting consumer spending as it is the only measure to trigger a slowdown in inflationary pressures.

  • The UK PMI data will be significant today for the GBP in determining a break above the 1.19 level.

Key Events
  • Euro zone flash manufacturing and services PMI

  • USD core durable goods order, unemployment claims, flash PMI

  • USD new home sales, revised consumer sentiment

  • GBP MPC member Pill speaks

  • USD crude oil inventories

  • USD FOMC meeting minutes

USD/JPY: Intraday Bullish
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bullish and is crossing the Ichimoku cloud.

  • If the price rejects the 141.00 level, the asset could rebound to the upside to 143.00.

  • Look for the DXY to strengthen for a signal to drag the asset higher with a price target of 143.06

  • Alternatively, look for a breakout below 141.00 with price target 139.67

  • Price is currently at 141.36 at time of writing.

Pivot 141.51

Our Preference:

Above 141.51 long positions with targets 141.93, 142.64, 143.06


Alternative Scenario:

Short positions below 141.51 with targets 140.89, 140.38, 139.67


EUR/USD: Intraday Bullish
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud and has broken the ascending trendline.

  • If bullish momentum continues, the price may continue to turn up and test the 1.0330 resistance level.

  • Alternatively, the price may drop back to the third support at 1.0190

  • The price is at 1.0318 at time of writing.

Pivot 1.0285

Our Preference:

Above 1.0285 long positions with targets 1.0330, 1.0355, 1.0400


Alternative Scenario:

Short positions below 1.0285 with targets 1.0260, 1.0215, 1.0190


GBP/USD: Intraday Bullish
  • On the 4-hour the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. However, the asset is struggling to break into 1.1900 territory and is hovering around the 1.1870 level. Currently trading sideways

  • If the price breaks to the upside, we expect it to hit the first resistance at 1.1920

  • Alternatively, below 1.1869 the price may break the first support level at 1.1837 before moving to the second support at 1.1786

  • The price is currently at 1.1882 at time of writing

  • Wait for the PMI data release for clearer direction


Pivot 1.1869

Our Preference:

Long positions above 1.1869 with targets, 1.1920, 1.1952, 1.2003


Alternative Scenario:

Below 1.1869 short positions with targets 1.1837, 1.1786, 1.1754


USD/CHF Intraday Bearish
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud

  • If bearish momentum continues, the price may hit the first support at 0.9488

  • Alternatively, the price may head back to the first resistance at 0.9571

  • The price is currently at 0.9515 at time of writing.

Pivot 0.9540


Our Preference:

Short positions below 0.9540 with targets 0.9488, 0.9457, 0.9405

Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 0.9540 with targets 0.9571, 0.9623, 0.9654


XAU/USD: Intraday Bearish / Caution
  • On the 4-hour chart price is descending and breaking the Ichimoku cloud.

  • We expect gold to fluctuate between 1735 and 1750 price level due to the volatility of the DXY. If the DXY gains in strength, gold could break below 1735

  • If the price continues to drop, we expect it to retest the first support at 1734.58 a drop below this may trigger a further drop to the 1729.08 level

  • Alternatively, the price may rebound to test the 1748.42 resistance

  • Price is currently at 1736.00 at time of writing.

Pivot 1738.75

Our Preference:

Short positions below 1738.75, with targets 1734.58, 1729.08, 1724.91


Alternative Scenario:

Long positions above 1738.75, with targets 1744.25, 1748.42, 1753.92


AUD/USD: Intraday Consolidation
  • On the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating after trading higher to reach a high of 0.6650. As the price consolidates, look for a breakout potential with the next key resistance level at 0.6721

  • Alternatively, a breakout to the downside will bring the price back towards the 0.6562 previous low.

  • Price is currently at 0.6642 at time of writing.

  • Further upside will depend on further strength on the NZD/USD or weakness on the DXY

Pivot 0.6634


Our Preference:

Long positions above 0.6634 with targets 0.6668, 0.6687, 0.6721


Alternative Scenario:

Below 0.6634 short positions with targets 0.6615, 0.6581. 0.6562


NZD/USD: Intraday Bullish
  • On the 4-hour chart the price is bullish and is above the Ichimoku cloud. If bullish momentum continues, expect price to head to the first resistance at 0.6180 and then 0.6206

  • Alternatively, the price may retrace back down and break the first support at 0.6112 and then retest 0.6070 support level.

  • The price is at 0.6172 at time of writing

  • Significant volatility is expected today

Pivot 0.6138


Our Preference:

Long positions above 0.6138 with targets 0.6180, 0.6206, 0.6248


Alternative Scenario:

Below 0.6138 short positions with targets 0.6112, 0.6070, 0.6044